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Central Economic Work Conference: In view of the bottleneck of industrial transformation and upgrading, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. The meeting proposed that we should unswervingly deepen reform and open wider to the outside world in view of the deep-seated obstacles and external challenges that restrict development; In view of the bottleneck restriction of industrial transformation and upgrading, promote the smooth continuous transformation of old and new kinetic energy; Strengthen policy support and optimize supervision services in response to concerns and demands in business operations; In view of the hidden risks in key areas, we will continue to vigorously promote risk disposal. We must vigorously improve the efficiency of implementation, fully mobilize the enthusiasm, initiative and creativity of grassroots units, continuously optimize the business environment, and better unite the joint efforts to promote high-quality development. (Xinhua News Agency)European Central Bank President Lagarde: The uncertainty brought by the next US administration is not within the forecast benchmark.Central Economic Work Conference: Deepen the comprehensive reform of capital market investment and financing, and open up the blocking points of medium and long-term funds entering the market. The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11 to 12. The meeting proposed to give play to the traction role of economic system reform and promote the implementation of landmark reform measures. High-quality completion of the deepening and upgrading of state-owned enterprise reform, the introduction of private economy promotion law. Carry out special actions to standardize law enforcement involving enterprises. Formulate guidelines for the construction of a unified national market. Strengthen supervision and promote the healthy development of platform economy. Make overall plans to promote the reform of the fiscal and taxation system and increase local independent financial resources. Deepen the comprehensive reform of investment and financing in the capital market, open up the blocking points of medium and long-term funds entering the market, and enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market system.

Stellantis: After rejoining ACEA, it will be consistent with its proposal. Jean-Philippe Imparato, head of Europe for Stellantis, said on Thursday that Stellantis decided to rejoin the European automobile lobby group ACEA, which means that the automobile manufacturer will immediately be consistent with the group's proposal. Stellantis said last week that he would rejoin ACEA, and the group withdrew in early 2023. Under the leadership of Carlos Tavares, CEO who resigned earlier this month, the group had previously opposed ACEA's call for reducing the EU's intermediate carbon emission reduction target in 2025, saying that it might bring billions of dollars in losses to the automobile industry.Wang Jing, National Endowment Insurance: Opening the market for individual pensions nationwide will usher in a period of historic policy opportunities, and the five departments jointly issued the Notice on the Full Implementation of the Individual Pension System. Wang Jing, head of the market channel department of the national pension insurance, said that after the individual pension is pushed nationwide, it is expected that the market will usher in a historic period of policy opportunities. All kinds of financial institutions will build differentiated and diversified product systems around people's diversified life-cycle pension financial needs, and provide comprehensive services with characteristics and quality, especially for flexible employees and new employment forms, which will further stimulate the whole society's active awareness of pension, accumulate pension financial funds and effectively promote the development of the real economy. (Securities Society)Analysis: Lagarde's speech increased the market's bet to cut interest rates by 50 basis points. In December, the European Central Bank lowered its economic forecast and inflation forecast. At the press conference, European Central Bank President Lagarde paid attention to the downside risks of economic growth, especially mentioning that trade friction may put pressure on economic growth, and also mentioned that they discussed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. Therefore, the atmosphere of the whole meeting is biased towards doves. The market then increased its bet on a 50 basis point rate cut after January. Although the possibility of a sharp interest rate cut in January is stable at 30%, the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in March has increased from 30% before the meeting to 40%, and the possibility of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in April has increased from 0% to 5%.

The dollar index DXY fell more than 20 points in the short term and is now reported at 106.58. Non-US currencies collectively rose, with GBP/USD of GBP rising by more than 20 points, EUR/USD of EUR/USD of EUR/USD rising by about 20 points and USD/JPY of USD/JPY rising by about 50 points.World Meteorological Organization: The possibility of La Nina in the next three months is more than 50%. The latest forecast released by the World Meteorological Organization on the 11th shows that the possibility of La Nina in the next three months is more than 50%. It is expected that the intensity of La Nina will be weak and the duration will be short. According to the introduction of the World Meteorological Organization, the current El Niñ o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index is in a neutral state, which is neither El Niñ o nor La Nina. According to the forecast, from December 2024 to February 2025, the possibility of changing from the current neutral state to La Nina phenomenon is 55%. The forecast also shows that from February to April 2025, the possibility of returning to neutral state is 55%. (Xinhua News Agency)Lian Ping: The Central Economic Work Conference released a strong financial afterburner signal to lower the RRR or cut interest rates at the end of this year or early next year. Lian Ping, chairman of the China Chief Economist Forum and president of the Guangkai Chief Industry Research Institute, said in an interview that the Central Economic Work Conference mentioned that "a moderately loose monetary policy should be implemented" and "lowering the RRR and cutting interest rates at the right time", which means that it is expected to intensify next year. Combined with the current domestic and international situation and liquidity situation, it is expected that the RRR cut and interest rate cut will land at the end of this year and early next year. Regarding "exploring and expanding the macro-prudential and financial stability functions of the central bank", Lian Ping believes that, on the one hand, the monetary policy should be reasonable and moderate, with a steady pace, so as to avoid a big deviation from market demand; On the other hand, monetary policy should explore and expand related fields and innovate constantly in maintaining financial stability. The functional connotation of the subsequent central bank is expected to be further enriched, and its coverage function may be extended to the whole financial field. "Next, whether it is the real estate market or the stock market, we need to build a long-term mechanism for financial stability." Lian Ping said. (SSE)